Menu Content/Inhalt
August 2018
30 31 1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30 31 1 2

Search on Site

Events Print
previous year previous month next month next year
See by year See by month See by week See Today Search Jump to month
Bastien Chabe-Ferret, Essex University Print
Friday, 11 May 2018, 12:15 - 13:15

Bastien Chabe-Ferret, Essex University

Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Cycles: the Case of the Post WWII Baby Boom

Abstract : Using the US Census waves 1940-1990 and CPS 1990-2010, we look at how economic uncertainty affected fertility cycles over the course of the XXth century. We use cross- state and cross-cohort variation in the volatility of income growth to identify the causal link running from uncertainty to fertility. We find that economic uncertainty has a large and robust negative effect on completed fertility. We hypothesize that a greater economic uncertainty increases the risk of large consumption swings, which individuals mitigate by postponing fertility and ultimately decreasing their completed fertility. Differences in volatility account for between 45% and 61% of the one child variation observed during the post WWII baby boom. 


Location: R42.2.113
Contact: Nancy De Munck - This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it