European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics
News
Estelle Cantillon Organizes Belgian Environmental Economics Day (BEED 2025)
12 February 2025ECARES member Estelle Cantillon organized the Belgian Environmental Economics Day (BEED 2025), a key event for environmental economists in Belgium. The day brought together experts , and researchers to discuss pressing environmental issues through an economic lens. The event featured a series of presentations and discussions on various topics within environmental economics, providing a platform …
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ECARES Welcomes Nobel Prize Laureate Jean Tirole for a Seminar
12 February 2025On February 6th, ECARES (Economics and Computing Research School) had the honor of welcoming Jean Tirole, the Nobel Prize-winning economist of 2014, for a prestigious seminar. Tirole, renowned for his groundbreaking work in industrial organization and market regulation, shared his insights on contemporary economic challenges. His presentation focused on his recent paper titled Engineering Commonality, …
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Short Course on Functional Data Analysis – February 18-19, 2025
31 January 2025Short Course on Functional Data Analysis – February 18-19, 2025Join us for a two-day short course on Functional Data Analysis, featuring a seminar by Jan Almond Stöcker from EPFL. Seminar – February 17, 2025 Speaker: Jan Almond Stöcker, EPFLTitle: Functional Additive Models for Forms of Plane Curves and Their VisualizationTime: 14:00 – 16:00 Abstract:In many …
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Publications

Finanzielle Ressourcen für die Verteidigung – noch vor der Wahl (2024)
Clemens Fuest, Moritz Schularick, Armin Steinbach, and Guntram Wolff

Working paper : Promoting Energy-sharing Communities: why and how? Lessons from a Belgian Pilot Project (2024-22)
Elise Viadere

Working paper : Personality Traits, the Marriage Market, and Household Behavior (2024-21)
Gaston P. Fernandez & Mariia Kovaleva

Working paper : Pack-Crack-Pack: Gerrymandering with Differential Turnout (2024-20)
Laurent Bouton & Garance Genicot & Micael Castanheira De Moura & Allison Stashko

The macroeconomic costs of energy policies: Quasi-fiscal deficit in the Middle East and North Africa (2024)
Energy Economics
Daniel Camos, Antonio Estache , Mohamad M. Hamid
Calendar
- 17 February 2025
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Jan Almond Stöcker, epfl
17 Feb, 14:00 - 16:00Title : Functional additive models for forms of plane curves and their visualization:
Abstract : In many imaging data problems, the coordinate system of recorded objects is arbitrary or explicitly not of interest. Statistical shape analysis addresses this by identifying the object of analysis as the "shape" of observation, i.e., its equivalence class modulo translation, rotation and re-scaling, or as its "form" modulo translation and rotation. A flexible additive regression framework is introduced for modeling the shape or form of planar (potentially irregularly sampled) curves and/or landmark configurations in dependence on scalar covariates. The focus is on an analysis of the form of cell outlines generated from a cellular Potts model in dependence on different metric biophysical model parameter effects (including smooth interactions). Graphic illustration usually plays an essential role in the practical interpretation of smooth (non-linear) additive model effects but becomes a challenging task when the response presents an (equivalence class of) planar curves or landmark configurations. Therefore, a novel visualization for multidimensional functional regression models is also suggested. Analogous to principal component analysis often used for the visualization of functional data, a suitable tensor-product factorization decomposes each covariate effect. After decomposition, the main effect directions can be illustrated on the level of curves, while the effect into the respective direction is visualized by standard effect plots for scalar additive models.
Location: R42.2.113Feb
17Title : Functional additive models for forms of plane curves and their visualization:
Abstract : In many imaging data problems, the coordinate system of recorded objects is arbitrary or explicitly not of interest. Statistical shape analysis addresses this by identifying the object of analysis as the "shape" of observation, i.e., its equivalence class modulo translation, rotation and re-scaling, or as its "form" modulo translation and rotation. A flexible additive regression framework is introduced for modeling the shape or form of planar (potentially irregularly sampled) curves and/or landmark configurations in dependence on scalar covariates. The focus is on an analysis of the form of cell outlines generated from a cellular Potts model in dependence on different metric biophysical model parameter effects (including smooth interactions). Graphic illustration usually plays an essential role in the practical interpretation of smooth (non-linear) additive model effects but becomes a challenging task when the response presents an (equivalence class of) planar curves or landmark configurations. Therefore, a novel visualization for multidimensional functional regression models is also suggested. Analogous to principal component analysis often used for the visualization of functional data, a suitable tensor-product factorization decomposes each covariate effect. After decomposition, the main effect directions can be illustrated on the level of curves, while the effect into the respective direction is visualized by standard effect plots for scalar additive models.
Jan Almond Stöcker, epfl
Monday, 14:00 - 16:00
Location: R42.2.113
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- 18 February 2025
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Short Course on Functional Data Analysis
18 Feb, 10:00 - 15:00Day 1 – February 18
9:30-11:00 Basics of Functional Data Analysis- What is functional data?
- Basic theoretical concepts
- The covariance and its decomposition
- Functional data representation
- Visualizing functional data
11:00-11:30 Coffee break
11:30-12:30 Functional Regression- Scalar-on-function regression
- Function-on-scalar regression
- Function-on-function regression
12:30-13:30 Lunch break
13:30-15:00 Functional Data Problems in RLocation: R42.2.113Feb
18Day 1 – February 18
9:30-11:00 Basics of Functional Data Analysis- What is functional data?
- Basic theoretical concepts
- The covariance and its decomposition
- Functional data representation
- Visualizing functional data
11:00-11:30 Coffee break
11:30-12:30 Functional Regression- Scalar-on-function regression
- Function-on-scalar regression
- Function-on-function regression
12:30-13:30 Lunch break
13:30-15:00 Functional Data Problems in RShort Course on Functional Data Analysis
Tuesday, 10:00 - 15:00
Location: R42.2.113
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Navid Sabet, Goethe University in Frankfurt
18 Feb, 14:00 - 15:30title : Out of the Shadows and into the Classroom:Immigrant Legalization, Hispanic Human Capitaland Hispanic Representation on School Boards
AbstractTo what extent does immigrant legalization foster human capital accumulation andtranslate into long-run economic mobility and political representation? I address thesequestions by comparing outcomes across people, public schools and counties in the USwith differential exposure to the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA), whichdocumented millions of Hispanic migrants. The IRCA increases Hispanic public schoolenrollment and high school completion, while whites sort out of public education andinto private schooling. In the long run, legal status boosts Hispanic college completion,access to high-skill occupations, and incomes. It also increases Hispanic school boardrepresentation and political mobility across locally elected public office but does not affectlocal government structure. These findings highlight legalization as a driver of humancapital investment and economic and political mobility. (JEL: I21, J15, H52)Location:Feb
18title : Out of the Shadows and into the Classroom:Immigrant Legalization, Hispanic Human Capitaland Hispanic Representation on School Boards
AbstractTo what extent does immigrant legalization foster human capital accumulation andtranslate into long-run economic mobility and political representation? I address thesequestions by comparing outcomes across people, public schools and counties in the USwith differential exposure to the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA), whichdocumented millions of Hispanic migrants. The IRCA increases Hispanic public schoolenrollment and high school completion, while whites sort out of public education andinto private schooling. In the long run, legal status boosts Hispanic college completion,access to high-skill occupations, and incomes. It also increases Hispanic school boardrepresentation and political mobility across locally elected public office but does not affectlocal government structure. These findings highlight legalization as a driver of humancapital investment and economic and political mobility. (JEL: I21, J15, H52)Navid Sabet, Goethe University in Frankfurt
Tuesday, 14:00 - 15:30
Location:
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- 19 February 2025
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Short Course on Functional Data Analysis
19 Feb, 10:00 - 18:00
9:30-11:00 Registration and Amplitude & Phase Variation- The problem of curve registration
- Different registration methods
- Elastic analysis in the square root velocity framework
11:00-11:30 Coffee break
11:30-12:30 Further Selected Topics, such as:- Functional mixed models
- Fragmented functional data
12:30-13:30 Lunch break
13:30-15:00 Functional Data Problems in RLocation:Feb
19
9:30-11:00 Registration and Amplitude & Phase Variation- The problem of curve registration
- Different registration methods
- Elastic analysis in the square root velocity framework
11:00-11:30 Coffee break
11:30-12:30 Further Selected Topics, such as:- Functional mixed models
- Fragmented functional data
12:30-13:30 Lunch break
13:30-15:00 Functional Data Problems in RShort Course on Functional Data Analysis
Wednesday, 10:00 - 18:00
Location:
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- 21 February 2025
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Feb
21Fadhil Nadhif Muharam, SSEFriday, 12:15 - 13:30
Location: R42.2.113
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- 25 February 2025
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Feb
25Merry Ferrando,Tilburg University
Tuesday, 14:00 - 15:30
Location: R42.2.113
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- 28 February 2025
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Feb
28Dogukan Guney, TSEFriday, 12:15 - 13:30
Location: R42.2.113
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- 4 March 2025
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Mar
04Marion Dumas, LSE
Tuesday, 14:00 - 15:30
Location: R42.2.113
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- 11 March 2025
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Mar
11Thomas Baudin, IESEG
Tuesday, 14:00 - 15:30
Location: R42.113
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- 14 March 2025
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Timo Ehrig, Times2
14 Mar, 12:15 - 13:30TITLE : The Theory-Based View of Strategy: How Counter-Theories Shape Confidence and Persuasion
ABSTRACT : In this talk, I will present the emerging theory-based view of strategy and entrepreneurship, in particular, the role of counter-theories and their role in rationally calibrating confidence and persuasion processes. Counter-theories are logical arguments against a current viewpoint or theory of a strategist. While Ehrig&Schmidt (2022) show that rationally learning from counter-theories can change theories about the future of an industry, even if they are rejected, I will present two newer results. In ongoing work with Todd Zenger, we show that if Bayesian learning suggests that confidence in pursuing a big goal should be low, and persistence would be overconfident, listening to counter-theories can rationally elevate the confidence of the strategist again, enabling rational persistence in the face of negative feedback about an initial theory of a strategist. This process is characterized by a recalibration of confidence in yet untestable assumptions, and we call such confidence "confidence type 2". In ongoing work with Jens Schmidt, we show that challengers (like Tesla) can use counter-theories to persuade incumbents (like Daimler) and these persuasion processes can be manipulative, as the incumbents can work with superior awareness, implying a logic of persuasion that is different from signaling or Bayesian persuasion. I will conclude the talk with ideas that, if we had taught them, may have helped the German car industry to react wiser in interactions with Tesla.
Ehrig & Schmidt 2022 SMJ: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/smj.3381
Ehrig & Zenger 2024 SS: https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/full/10.1287/stsc.2024.0177
Location: R42.2.103Mar
14Timo Ehrig, Times2TITLE : The Theory-Based View of Strategy: How Counter-Theories Shape Confidence and Persuasion
ABSTRACT : In this talk, I will present the emerging theory-based view of strategy and entrepreneurship, in particular, the role of counter-theories and their role in rationally calibrating confidence and persuasion processes. Counter-theories are logical arguments against a current viewpoint or theory of a strategist. While Ehrig&Schmidt (2022) show that rationally learning from counter-theories can change theories about the future of an industry, even if they are rejected, I will present two newer results. In ongoing work with Todd Zenger, we show that if Bayesian learning suggests that confidence in pursuing a big goal should be low, and persistence would be overconfident, listening to counter-theories can rationally elevate the confidence of the strategist again, enabling rational persistence in the face of negative feedback about an initial theory of a strategist. This process is characterized by a recalibration of confidence in yet untestable assumptions, and we call such confidence "confidence type 2". In ongoing work with Jens Schmidt, we show that challengers (like Tesla) can use counter-theories to persuade incumbents (like Daimler) and these persuasion processes can be manipulative, as the incumbents can work with superior awareness, implying a logic of persuasion that is different from signaling or Bayesian persuasion. I will conclude the talk with ideas that, if we had taught them, may have helped the German car industry to react wiser in interactions with Tesla.
Ehrig & Schmidt 2022 SMJ: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/smj.3381
Ehrig & Zenger 2024 SS: https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/full/10.1287/stsc.2024.0177
Friday, 12:15 - 13:30
Location: R42.2.103
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