European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics

Title : How to Weight in Moment Matching: An ML Approach with Applications toEarnings Dynamics

Abstract : Following the seminal paper by Altonji and Segal (1996), empiricalstudies commonly adopt equal or diagonal weighting in minimum distanceestimation to mitigate finite-sample bias arising from sampling error in theweighting matrix. We propose a new weighting scheme that combines cross-fittingwith regularized estimation of the weighting matrix, in the spirit of de-biasedmachine learning. We also propose a new formula for cross-fitted standarderrors. We show that several canonical models in the earnings dynamicsliterature satisfy exact or approximate  sparsity conditions that can beexploited by graphical lasso estimation of the weighting matrix. Within amany-moment asymptotic framework, we characterize the asymptotic distributionof the structural parameters. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that ourapproach outperforms commonly used alternative weighting schemes. Finally, anempirical application using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamicsillustrates the practical gains of our method.

Keynotewith FrançoisCandelon :
"AI at work, the permanent revolution?"

Introductionby Louis deDiesbach, PhD candidate SBS-EM and co-founder of the Lab

Panelmoderated by MarekHudon (CEESE ULB, CEBRIG)
🗣️ Panel : Ina Güldenpfennig, Jean-Marc Boxus, Isaure deVillenfagne

Launching Event - Research Lab inBusiness and Technology Ethics

✒️ I'm signing up Seminar on Financial inclusion inthe North - Prof. Anastasia Cozarenco

Title : Do Firms Share their Profits Equally with Women andMen? The Role of Human Capital, Managerial Positions and Unions

Abstract : While rent-sharing is known to vary with workforceheterogeneity, the role of firm profits in shaping the genderwage gap remains relatively unexplored. This studycontributes to the literature by leveraging a rich matchedemployer-employee dataset covering the Belgian privatesector from 1999 to 2016. By controlling for a wide array ofindividual, job, and firm characteristics, and addressingpotential endogeneity issues, our results indicate that firmstend to share a larger portion of their profits with workerswho are tertiary educated, have at least ten years of tenure,occupy managerial positions, or whose wages have beenrenegotiated at the firm level. Overall, wage-profit elasticitiesdo not differ between men and women. However, OaxacaBlinder decompositions suggest that rent-sharingcontributes to the gender wage gap through the channel ofsegregation, i.e. women are more often employed in firmswith lower profits.

*Pleasecontact Helene.Bertaux@ulb.be if you wish to participate (lunchis provided so please confirm your presence max. one week before the event).​​

Title: Positive tipping points ans transitional dynamics : policies for the green transition

Abstract: Using a dynamic model in which heterogenous consumers make forward-looking choices between brown and green durable goods, we establish conditions under which peer effects lead to multiple steady states and multiple equilibrium path. Policy, such as a green subsidy, needs to exceed a critical threshold level to achieve green transition, and even larger to increase welfare. We analyse the feasibility, speed, and cost of transition showing how they depend on the strength of peer effects, the value of emissions avoided, and on policy employed. 
Pigouvian policies internalising the externalities associated with climate damage and with peer effects may not be sufficient to lead to a green transition; even if they are, they may not yield net benefits given the costs of transition.Outcomes seem relatively insensitive to the exact form of policy measures, providing they exceed the critical threshold level.

Title : Organizing under the Threat of Desertion

Abstract : Organizations are often exposed to the risk that members leave unexpectedly,disrupting coordination and reducing the productivity of those who remain. Thispaper studies how exposure to such departure risk shapes organizationalstructure. We develop a network formation model in which agents choose how torelate to one another in order to produce, and how to share the valuegenerated. When agents face the possibility that a member exits at random,organizational design reflects a trade-off between exploiting coordinationbenefits and limiting fragility. We characterize the set of stableorganizational structures and describe individual behavior under this risk.